AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Recovers from Midday, Still Closes Lower

Corn futures close fractionally lower after Wednesday’s session. Ethanol production (and implied corn consumption) saw its biggest wk/wk increase in daily production since April, as the EIA reported 996,000 bpd. Daily production is still below 1 million barrels, but the 4 week trend is an average increase of 13,250 bpd wk/wk. Ethanol stocks decreased by 697,000 barrels for the week ending 10/18 to 21.364 million barrels. The Midwest was the only region to show a stocks increase. Estimates ahead of Thursday’s Export Sales report show 450,000-850,000 MT

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.87 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.99 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.06 1/4, down 1/2 cent

JUL 20 Corn closed at $4.12, down 1 cent

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Firm to Fractionally Lower

Soybeans futures continue to hold their ground, closing Wednesday steady to fractionally lower. Soybean meal finished up by $1.70/ton, but soy oil was lower by 27 points. Nearby soy oil did trade at the highest price since February. The USDA reported a private export sale of 128,000 MT of soybeans to unknown for 2019/20 delivery. Traders are awaiting USDA confirmation of purchases stemming from China’s 10 MMT TRQ for American soybeans. A 10MMT TRQ implies that purchases beyond the 10 MMT quota are subject to tariffs but receive a lower or zero rate up to that quota. Traders expect the weekly Export Sales report to show somewhere between 800,000 MT and 1.6 MMT in soybean sales for the week that ended on 10/17. Soy meal estimates are 100,000-300,000 MT, with soy oil at 0-25,000 MT. Mato Grasso in Brazil is forecasted to finally get some needed moisture to assist soybean planting and development.

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.33 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.48 1/4, unch,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.59 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.68, down 1/2 cent,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $308.60, up $1.70,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.58, down $0.27

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wednesday Wheat is Mixed

Wheat futures rebounded from midday losses, with Minneapolis leading the way, closing 2 1/4 to 4 1/4 higher. Chicago futures closed 1 to 2 3/4 higher, while Kansas City wheat saw 2 to 3 cent gains on Wednesday. Prior to Thursday’s USDA Export Sales report, analysts expect to see 300,000-600,000 in 19/20 bookings of wheat for the week that ended on 10/17. Taiwan is tendering for 88,900 MT of US wheat, with the deadline for offers on Thursday. Algeria purchased ~600,000 MT of optional origin wheat in their recent tender on Wednesday. Traders estimated the price at $227-229/MT, higher than the last tender in September. The purchase is optional origin, but French wheat is likely due to freight costs. Ukr Agro Consult reported that Russian wheat exports are down 12% yr/yr.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.20 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.23 1/4, up 2 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.42 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Futures Make Gains on Wednesday

Live cattle futures closed up by as much as $1.55 on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures were also higher, by $1.25 to $1.40 in the front moths. The 10/21 CME Feeder Cattle index dropped $1.03 to $144.93. Analysts on average expect the USDA’s Cattle on Feed report (Friday) to show Oct 1 on feed numbers at 11.272 million head, down 1.22% from last year. Wednesday’s midday wholesale boxed beef prices are higher, with the Chc/Sel spread reversing and widening to $24.34. Choice boxes are up by $2.46 to $223.28, and Select boxes are up $0.86 to $198.94. The USDA weekly estimated FI cattle slaughter was 355,000 head through Wednesday. That is up 4,000 head from last week but 3,000 head behind last year’s pace. Asks are $110 in the South so far this week, with no bids to report. Wednesday’s FCE online auction saw 131 of the 231 head sold at $109, with feedlots passing on bids of $105 for the remaining 100 head

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $110.200, up $0.325,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $115.250, up $1.550,

FEB 20 Cattle closed at $120.425, up $1.325,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.025, up $1.325

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.750, up $1.250

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.200, up $1.400

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs are Mixed at the End of Wednesdays Session

Wednesday’s lean hog futures ended mixed. USDA’s Cold Storage report, released after the Tuesday close, showed 598.894 M lbs of frozen pork stocks on September 30. Frozen belly stocks for September were the highest they’ve been for that month since 1971. The CME Lean Hog Index dropped by 6 cents on Oct 18 to $65.47. Wednesday’s pork carcass cutout value from USDA is down by $1.06 finishing at $75.78. Primal cuts were mixed on Wednesday, ribs gained $4.15 while bellies dropped $4.52. The national average base hog for 10/23 was 61 cents lower to $55.24. USDA estimated hog slaughter for the week is 1.471 million head through Wednesday, matching last week’s pace and surpassing the last years WTD pace by 35,000. Pork prices in the Chinese market have risen enough to cause ripple effects in their economy, their inflation rate is now up to 4%.

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $65.825, up $0.325,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $75.100, down $1.175

APR 20 Hogs closed at $81.625, down $1.500

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wednesday Cotton Closing Higher

Cotton futures ended the day with gains from 19 to 30 points in the nearby contracts after an intraday peak around midday. USDA reported that 2.84 million RB of cotton had been ginned as of Oct 15, a 1.557 million RB increase from Oct 1 and 17.3% larger than the same date last year. Rain is expected for parts of Central TX to AL over the next few days. The Cotlook A Index had given back 50 points on Oct 22, at 75.20 cents/lb. The AWP, which will be updated Thursday, is currently at 55.26.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 64.88, up 21 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 65.72, up 30 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 66.39, up 26 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 66.84, up 19 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com