Turkeys Raised
Turkeys Raised 

ISSN: 1949-1972

Released September 26, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service 
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 
Agriculture (USDA).

Turkeys Raised Down 2 percent from 2018

Turkeys Raised in the United States during 2019 is forecasted at 240 million, 
down 2 percent from the number raised during 2018.

The top six states account for 67 percent of the turkeys produced in the 
United States during 2019. The largest turkey producing state is Minnesota, 
at 40.0 million turkeys, down 5 percent from the previous year. North 
Carolina produced 32.5 million turkeys, unchanged from last year. Arkansas 
produced 32.0 million turkeys, which is up 2 percent from the previous year. 
Indiana is up 8 percent from a year ago to 21.5 million turkeys. Missouri 
produced 19.0 million turkeys, unchanged from last year. Virginia is down 7 
percent from the previous year at 15.7 million turkeys.

Turkeys Raised - States and United States: 2018 and 2019
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :        Turkeys raised         :   2019 as    
             State            :-------------------------------:   percent    
                              :     2018      :     2019      :   of 2018    
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :    ------ 1,000 head -----        percent    
                              :                                              
Arkansas .....................:     31,500          32,000          102      
California ...................:     11,000           9,400           85      
Indiana ......................:     20,000          21,500          108      
Iowa .........................:     11,900          11,700           98      
Michigan .....................:      5,300           5,400          102      
Minnesota ....................:     42,000          40,000           95      
Missouri .....................:     19,000          19,000          100      
North Carolina ...............:     32,500          32,500          100      
Ohio .........................:      6,700           5,900           88      
Pennsylvania .................:      7,000           6,600           94      
                              :                                              
South Dakota .................:      4,250           4,400          104      
Virginia .....................:     16,800          15,700           93      
West Virginia ................:      3,100           3,600          116      
                              :                                              
Other States 1/ ..............:     33,700          32,300           96      
                              :                                              
United States ................:    244,750         240,000           98      
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes State estimates not shown and States withheld to avoid           
   disclosing data for individual operations.                                

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: Data for turkeys raised estimates are collected from all 
known operations raising 1,000 or more turkeys annually. NASS regional 
offices maintain a list of all known turkey grow-out operations. 
Approximately 377 turkey grow-out operations are contacted in September and 
February. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting, 
mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. 

Estimating Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young 
turkeys intended for meat production and breeder turkeys reaching maturity 
during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or 
those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery 
Survey and indications from the September Turkeys Raised Survey provide the 
basis for the preliminary estimates published in September. Final estimates, 
published in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey 
in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final 
estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data 
provided by state turkey or poultry associations.

Revision Policy: Estimates from the previous year are subject to revision 
when final raised estimates are made in April. Revisions are primarily based 
on updated hatchery and slaughter data. Estimates will also be reviewed after 
data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions 
will be made after that date.

Reliability: Turkeys raised estimates are based on a census of all known 
turkey grow-out operations, and therefore have no sampling error. However, 
estimates are subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, mistakes in 
reporting or recording, and processing of the data. While these errors cannot 
be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in 
the data collection process, and through a careful review of all reported 
data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the 
"Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised is shown in the 
following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based 
on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and 
final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised 
over the past 10 years is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 
that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 
240 million turkeys by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that 
the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent.

Reliability of September Turkeys Raised Estimates
[Based on data for the past ten years]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :  Root mean   :  90 percent  :       Difference between first and latest estimate       
                              : square error :  confidence  :        :        :        :               :               
                              :              :    level     :----------------------------------------------------------
             Item             :              :              :        :        :        :             Years             
                              :              :              :        :        :        :-------------------------------
                              :              :              :Average :Smallest:Largest : Below latest  : Above latest  
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :   percent        percent      -------- 1,000 --------          ----- number ----       
                              :                                                                                        
Number raised ................:     1.2            2.1        2,328     500     5,100          4               6       
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural 
Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to 
nass@nass.usda.gov

Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch .......................................... (202) 720-3570

Tony Dorn, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ....................... (202) 690-3223
   Holly Brenize - Poultry Slaughter.............................................. (202) 720-0585
   Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses ....... (202) 720-4751
   Liana Cuffman - Catfish and Trout, Egg Products, Mink, Census of Aquaculture .. (202) 720-8784
   Adam Peters - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery .............................. (202) 690-3237 
   Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs .................................................... (202) 690-3676
   Fatema Haque - Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ................................ (202) 720-3244
   Adam Peters - Honey, Honey Bee Colonies ....................................... (202) 690-3237

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